From a New York 1 poll:
In the General Election, New York remains a blue state with either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee. Hillary beats Rudy Giuliani by 14 points and John McCain by 16 points. Barack Obama beats Rudy Giuliani statewide by 6 points and defeats John McCain by 15 points.
Obama beating Giuliani is the most interesting thing to me. This deflates the notion that Rudy might carry New York State, especially when you consider that Hillary beats Obama 49-17 in a primary matchup. In other words, a Dem with low support among Dems (Obama) can still beat Saint Rudy.
There’s also this bit:
Mayor Michael Bloomberg is considered unlikely to enter the presidential race if the other formidable New Yorkers are the eventual nominees of their parties, and at 14% he hardly makes a dent in the support of either Hillary Clinton (46%) or Rudy Giuliani (32%) in a 3-way contest, and takes equally from both.
It’s that last line which jumps out at me, seeing as some recent polls have been touted showing Bloomberg pulling almost entirely from the GOP. However, there may be a local effect here, given that many NYC Democrats have gotten accustomed to pulling the lever for Bloomberg. Dems elsewhere might not be so inclined.
METHODOLOGYThis poll was conducted from April 4 through April 7, 2007, among 1,013 New York State registered voters, including 496 registered Democratic voters (with a margin of error of +/-4.5%); 274 registered Republicans (with a margin of error of +/-6%) and 500 New York City registered voters (with a margin of error of +/-4.5%).
We know it is way too early for polls. But we will take the 14% which is great for the Draft Committee…
http://www.DraftMichael.com
Revamp the site. I know it’s just a grassroots thing, but still, at least have the e-mail links work.
If I had to choose between Hilary, Rudy, or Bloomberg, I’d vote Bloomberg.
The Atlantic Yards thing pisses me off a whole lot less than Hillary voting for the Patriot act did. When she cast that vote, I swore never to vote for her again.
If Hillary gets the nom, I think Bloomberg might be the best way to go. Rasmussen already has him at 9%, which for an Independent is quite good. He’s said he’d spend half a BILLION dollars, and possible more, which means he has money. unlike Perot, he also has experience running NYC, in some ways more than Rudy. While Rudy was in charge during 9/11, Bloomberg’s been in charge post 9/11 a completely different city than what Rudy was in charge of. the only question is how Bloomberg would try to win, outright, or force the election to the house of reps through the electoral college? either way, i’d be interesting. oh and one last thing, i’d LOVE to see him choose VT ind senator Bernie Sanders as his running mate, mostly to see a billionare capitalist and an avowed socialist on the same ticket. Ahough bernie probably wouldn’t accept.